You’re right to be cautious—this is a legally sensitive moment. Here’s what you should know about the risks of rolling out the new piece rate now:

1. Risk of Unfair Labour Practice (ULP)

Any change to terms and conditions of employment (wages, rates, benefits, hours, etc.) at a location where a bargaining unit has been certified—even if bargaining hasn’t begun—can be seen by the Labour Relations Board (LRB) as an unfair labour practice if it looks like you’re trying to undermine the union’s position.

The test is less about your actual intent and more about how it appears. If the timing suggests the wage change is aimed at discouraging union activity or influencing workers at the Kelowna warehouse, that’s a problem.

2. Bona Fide Business Justification

You do have a legitimate business rationale: increasing output to meet project compensation terms. The fact that you can document that this plan predates certification helps.

However, even bona fide changes that look like inducements (e.g., sudden pay increases, bonuses, or improved rates coinciding with union organizing) are often challenged. The LRB may say: “You should have waited until collective bargaining.”

3. Spillover to Kelowna

If the union is eyeing Kelowna, rolling out the new rate across both sites could be characterized as an attempt to dissuade employees from organizing.

Even if you limit it to the certified location, the union could argue it was meant to influence the Kelowna crew indirectly.

4. Potential Consequences

A ULP complaint could result in:
• Orders to reverse the piece rate change.
• Monetary remedies (back pay, penalties).
• Most importantly, in certain jurisdictions, repeated ULPs during organizing can trigger the “remedial certification” or “automatic collective agreement” provisions—meaning the Board can impose a contract without negotiations, as you flagged.

5. Safer Paths Forward

Delay the rollout until you’ve at least opened bargaining. That way, you can table the new rate as a management proposal, supported by your documented business need.

If you absolutely must implement now, do so across the company (not just at unionized or potentially unionizing sites), tie it transparently to project performance targets, and communicate that it was long in the works. But even then, you’re exposed.

Seek labour counsel immediately. They can advise whether your jurisdiction’s LRB has a history of strict remedial certification orders in similar circumstances.

Bottom line:
You’re right; rolling this out tomorrow morning carries significant risk. Even if you can show emails proving this was planned earlier, the optics are poor. Given you already have one LRB claim, another could tip the scales toward imposed terms. The legally safer move is to pause and integrate this into bargaining.